PM Modi's masterstroke: How will repeal of agricultural laws affect 2022 assembly polls?

New Delhi: 

Why were the three controversial agricultural laws which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his government and the entire BJP have said would open the door to national interest and farmers’ prosperity for almost a year, suddenly withdrawn? 

This question was on the mind of many people when on the morning of November 19, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his address to the nation, acknowledged some shortcomings in his policy and announced the repeal of these laws.

Many believe that Prime Minister Modi has withdrawn

the three controversial agricultural laws

to ensure the victory of the  BJP in the proposed Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Manipur Assembly elections in February-March 2022. The most important of these are Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab, where the significant impact of the peasant movement was a source of trouble for the BJP. 

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But according to BJP insiders, this unexpected step of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been taken not to avoid election defeats in 2022, but in view of the fear of the party being wiped out badly in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Because the way to win the Lok Sabha elections in 2024 will come from within the results of the Assembly elections of the five states of 2022, especially Uttar Pradesh.

This was stated by none other than Home Minister Amit Shah himself during

a public meeting

in Lucknow.

Due to the peasant movement, the BJP’s equations have deteriorated in one hundred and fifty assembly seats of western Uttar Pradesh and after the violent incident of Lakhimpur Khiri, the fear of reaching Central and Eastern Uttar Pradesh has increased. 

While Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has not seen any direct defeat in his electoral political career since 2001, does not want the innings of his glorious political life to end with an embarrassing defeat. He does not want to repeat Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s story of Shining India and Feel Good.

The three agrarian laws which were suddenly brought in the name of agrarian reforms through ordinances in the midst of lockdown in Corona period and then passed amidst unfortunate uproar in Rajya Sabha despite heavy opposition in Parliament. Against which groups of farmers have been camping on the borders of Delhi for almost a year and despite the use of all kinds of deceptive force on them, they did not move away but the farmers leaders roamed around the country protesting against these agricultural laws. The atmosphere was created and in response he was awarded various medals like Khalistani, Terrorist, Hooligan, Naxalite Maoist Brokers and Foreign Agent.

It included a large section of the media from the ruling party leaders, Union ministers, ministers of the BJP-ruled states, senior leaders and social media squads. But the agitating farmers could not be shaken by the unfortunate incidents like police batons, tear gas, water cannons, barricades, Red Fort, Karnal and Khiri Lakhimpur, nor the second terrible wave of cold, heat, rain and corona nor the propaganda against them. It worked and eventually the central government or rather Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to withdraw his steps.

In fact, those who have closely watched the politics and working style of Narendra Modi from the time of BJP when he was working in various positions in the party organization, will soon realize that Modi took back his steps to please the farmers. Why pull. Narendra Modi never saw the face of personal failure in his entire political life. In Gujarat, when he was removed from the politics of the state due to the internal politics of the party, he was given an important responsibility in the central organization of the BJP. He was the General Secretary in charge of the states of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh etc. and was extremely trusted by both Lal Krishna Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi in the central leadership of the then BJP. He later became Advani’s chief warlord.

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Narendra Modi was made the Chief Minister by removing Keshubhai Patel in 2001, till then he had not contested a single election in his life. His administrative ability and leadership ability were not tested by the party. But after taking over the command of Gujarat, Modi did not stop and he first established himself as the Hindu heart emperor in the era of Godhra scandal and communal violence in its aftermath. 

Because after the ideological and political deviation of Kalyan Singh in the Hindutva politics of Sangh BJP, this place became vacant and Narendra Modi filled it with extreme cleverness and he emerged as the greatest warrior of Hindutva politics and came into national politics. But at the same time he also gave impetus to development and good governance in Hindutva and presented to the country a Gujarat model of development and good governance which was about to awaken the dreams of development and corruption free good governance at national level within the majority population of India. 

On the other hand, he also cheered the Hindu mind which was attacked and angry with the alleged Muslim partisanship and global Islamophobia of non-BJP political parties in the name of secularism. With this, Modi also struck a social balance with his extremely simplistic political shrewdness and he established himself as a hero of Hindutva and development good governance as well as a representative of the deprived poor and backward classes.

At the forefront as the most popular and powerful leader in the family. In the Gujarat Assembly elections from 2002 to 2012, he gave continuous success to the party only on his face and in both the Lok Sabha elections held from 2014 to 2019 and in all the Assembly elections, not only PM Modi became the symbol of BJP’s victory but the whole party his image and became a hostage of popularity. From small to big elections began to be fought in the name of PM Modi. 

However, PM Modi’s appeal was as successful in the Lok Sabha elections as it was in the Assembly elections. For example, after the immense success of the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP led by Modi won unexpectedly in Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. 

But in 2015, first in Delhi and then in Bihar, he lost badly to the Aam Aadmi Party and the RJD, JD (U) and the Congress grand alliance, despite Modi’s smoky campaign. But the victory of Assam in 2016 again raised the banner of Modi and BJP and the stormy victory of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand in 2017 after the denomination covered the failures of Punjab and Goa.

But this year, Narendra Modi had to work hard to win the BJP in Gujarat and the party kept on losing. However, in May 2018, despite Modi’s brilliance in Karnataka, the BJP could not touch the majority figure and in the elections held later this year, the BJP lost to the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Later, BJP formed its governments in Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh by changing parties. Won 303 seats alone as compared to 283 seats in 2014.

Once again, the slogans of Modi’s victory began to resound. But this year, the BJP fell behind again in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand. Unable to touch the majority figure in Haryana, it had to form an alliance with the JJP, while in Maharashtra and Jharkhand it lost power. With the BJP’s drastic defeat again in Delhi in 2020 and somehow winning by losing in Bihar, Modi’s luster started weakening again. In 2021, although the BJP reconstituted its government in Assam, the way it lost in West Bengal and Mamata Banerjee lost her own election, but her party’s vote and seats both increased more than before.

Following the defeat of Bengal, the five state elections to be held in February-March next year are a huge challenge for both the BJP and Narendra Modi. Issues like inflation, LPG, skyrocketing petrol-diesel prices, expensive electricity, scarcity of fertilizers and black market and sugar encroachment from Ladakh to Arunachal are in the shadows.

The opposition is heating up these issues. However, the BJP is fighting by counting the image of Narendra Modi and his government’s welfare schemes like Kisan Samman Rashi, Atmanirbhar Bharat, Pradhan Mantri Garib Awas Yojana, free gas cylinder, electricity to every village and house, free ration to eighty crore people etc. But the biggest problem has been with the peasant movement that it is becoming extremely difficult for BJP leaders in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab to go to the villages for their campaign. Their protests, black flags and in some places violent attacks were on the rise.

The incident of Lakhimpur Khiri made the opposition aggressive in Uttar Pradesh and the same opposition which was accused of not leaving the house, is now gathering huge crowds on the streets. In Uttar Pradesh, whether it is the influx of people in Akhilesh Yadav’s meetings and rallies or the crowds flocking to Priyanka Gandhi’s meetings, they are attracting more attention than the meetings of the Prime Minister, Home Minister and Chief Minister. Despite all the resources and the help of government machinery, the inauguration ceremony of Purvanchal Expressway was not as crowded as the rally of Akhilesh Yadav on Ghazipur Expressway the next day.

All these news disturbed the top leadership of BJP, Union leaders as well as Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But that alone did not bother a leader known for his tough decisions like Modi. Because BJP has lost in many states in the Assembly elections after 2014, despite all the aggressive propaganda of Modi. But the direct shard of that defeat did not fall on Modi nor did it have any effect on Modi’s own central power. The party’s propaganda machinery and media management saved the image of its top and most popular leader by blaming local leaders and causes for these defeats.

There is more to it than that. In fact, there was a great commotion within the BJP regarding the peasant movement. MP Varun Gandhi and Meghalaya Governor Satyapal Malik were openly giving statements in favor of the farmers. While BJP Kisan Cell vice president Naresh Sirohi has been opposing agricultural laws and supporting the farmers’ movement from day one. Apart from these, many leaders were beginning to believe with a repressed tongue that even if the peasant movement continued like this or the peasants returned exhausted, the BJP would lose the 2022 elections and the Lok Sabha elections of 2024 and would lose badly. Because all the three agricultural laws were brought by the central government and the farmers’ movement is against the central government itself. The central government means Narendra Modi and for the rising prices of petrol-diesel, LPG, people have also changed their policies.

They are assuming responsibility. In such a big state like Uttar Pradesh, people’s resentment towards Modi is increasing more than yogis and as much anger will erupt in Lok Sabha elections as it will erupt in Assembly elections.

News of this ground reality started reaching Prime Minister Narendra Modi from all sources. The results of the recent by-elections have done the right thing. These results include BJP’s defeat in one Lok Sabha and three Assembly seats in Himachal, BJP’s slipping to third and fourth in both Rajasthan Assembly seats, defeat in Maharashtra and Karnataka Assembly seats and strong BJP like Ragaon in Madhya Pradesh. The victory of the Congress in the seat and the victory of the BJP candidate over the veteran Congress candidate in Khandwa, a decrease of two lakh votes as compared to 2019, was a sign that despite all the campaigning and media management, everything is not right on the ground. .

According to a source close to the PMO, fears are growing that if the graph of Prime Minister Modi’s popularity continues to fall in this way, then a huge challenge will arise in the Lok Sabha elections and the opposition united by the BJP’s defeat in the Assembly elections In the Lok Sabha elections, the situation of BJP may be even worse than that of Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government in 2004. The last nail in the coffin was Satyapal Malik, the Governor of Meghalaya, when he said that if the peasant movement continues, not only will the BJP lose in the Uttar Pradesh elections but also in the Lok Sabha elections it will be so clear that the BJP will not be found in Parliament.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot even imagine such a defeat. He has not yet seen a personal defeat. These news disturbed him immensely and after this he happily decided that at the moment all the three agricultural laws have to be withdrawn to satisfy the farmers. Sources said that no one in the government and the party was aware of this decision of the Prime Minister. At the last moment, some senior ministers at the top level must have guessed this, which they also told to some of their special friends in gestures.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi estimates that his decision will end the dissatisfaction of the farmers and even if he is a little angry, it will have an effect till the Assembly elections. After that he has about two to two and a half years in which he can once again establish his popularity and again in 2024 he can save himself and the party from the recurrence of 2004 by making a new election move. So they have taken this step for 2024 more than 2022.

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