The younger Rajapaksa was anointed as the chosen successor to elder brother Mahinda amidst an event that was carefully choreographed, much to the delight of adoring crowds carrying and waving photos of both Rajapaksa brothers. The evening was replete with song and dance and relatively a few political utterances.
Mahinda Rajapaksa spoke before declaring Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the SLPP candidate. “He has already become your brother,” the former President said in what would have been a response to criticism about appointing a family member to succeed him. The older Rajapaksa was in his element, making a speech that had the hallmarks of Mahinda Rajapaksa, the street-smart politician whose forte was winning and wooing the crowds.
In what would be his first political appearance in public Gotabaya Rajapaksa was much more subdued and restrained. While the rhetoric was there, his speech lacked that appealing quality which comes from years of being on the political stage. Its content was a manifesto of sorts, heavy on broad principles but extremely lacking in specifics.
A theme that ran through the speeches of both Rajapaksas was the security of the country. It is clear that the SLPP will use this as the main theme of their campaign. The strategists of the new political party realise that the April 21st Easter Sunday attacks and the subsequent revelations about how the country’s security and intelligence networks functioned prior to that, have cast a doubt about the nation’s safety once more.
Given Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s track record as an efficient, if ruthless, Defence Secretary who kept the country safe at a time of war and given the incumbent government’s amateurish handling of the aftermath of Easter attacks, they will be constantly referring to the issue of safety and security and identifying Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the man who can deliver that. A scan of social media posts- spontaneous or orchestrated- reveals that this will be a major factor in the upcoming campaign.
What was even more interesting were the behind the scenes manoeuvres that preceded the SLPP convention last Sunday. There was much speculation about how the mainstream Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) of which President Maithripala Sirisena is the leader, would react to the event.
SLFP parliamentarians
Prior to the event, SLFP General Secretary Dayasiri Jayasekara went on record stating that SLFP parliamentarians would not be attending the SLPP convention. Asked how Mahinda Rajapaksa, being a patron of the SLFP could take over the mantle of leadership of another political party, Jayasekara also agreed that disciplinary action against Rajapaksa could be a possibility.
If that was intended to intimidate SLFP parliamentarians wishing to attend the convention, it didn’t have the desired effect. S. B. Dissanayake, until now a loyalist of President Sirisena but having a dubious record of political pole-vaulting, indicated very early that he would be attending the convention- and he did, as did many other SLFP parliamentarians.
For these MPs, the choice is simple: they feel they have to throw in their lot with the faction which is more likely to emerge winners at the next parliamentary election. Based on the results of the most recent poll, the 2018 February local government election, most of them feel that the SLPP has a greater chance of success than the SLFP. Hence their eagerness to show their affinity to the SLPP. It is not a difficult choice: after all, most of them were on Mahinda Rajapaksa’s team for the best part of ten years, when he was in office.
These parliamentarians feel that they should make their move now. That is because the value they would bring to the SLPP, in the event of a Gotabaya Rajapaksa victory at the presidential election, would be greater and would be appreciated more if they join in the campaign for him now rather than wait for a potential victory and then switch loyalties.
The comments of Jayasekara and Mahinda Amaraweera, the General Secretary of the United Peoples’ Freedom Alliance (UPFA) in the wake of Sunday’s SLPP convention are even more interesting. Jayasekara said that, with the SLPP naming Gotabaya Rajapaksa as its presidential candidate, the SLFP would reconsider the rationale of continuing talks with the SLPP aimed at choosing a common candidate.
“The SLFP was in a dialogue with the SLPP for several months with only a few contentious issues to be sorted out. We were in agreement on many areas and hoping to finalise the pact in August after selecting the presidential candidate collectively by the President and Mahinda Rajapaksa. However, these plans have collapsed with the official naming of Gotabaya Rajapaksa as the SLPP candidate,” Jayasekara said a day after the convention.
Jayasekara also persisted with his argument that a SLPP candidate contesting on his own will be hard pressed to win a presidential poll because he will lack support from the minority communities, given the party’s pro-majority community nationalistic stance. He also warned that the SLFP Central Committee would meet this week to decide on the next course of action be taken against SLFP members who attended the SLPP convention ignoring the party’s Constitution.
Amaraweera meanwhile declared that he was “still trying hard” to forge an agreement for a common agenda between the SLPP and the SLFP. However, he agreed with Jayasekara that victory for a candidate at an election would be possible only if the resources of the SLFP and the SLPP are pooled together. Both Jayasekara and Amaraweera revealed that no further direct talks between President Sirisena and SLPP and Opposition leader Mahinda Rajapaksa are planned at present.
This leaves President Sirisena’s stance on the candidacy of Gotabaya Rajapaksa unclear as yet. While there was a direct round of talks between the President and Rajapaksa recently, many believed that an understanding was reached at these discussions, which allowed the latter to go ahead with the SLPP convention without any reservations. However, the comments of SLFP stalwarts still remaining loyal to the President, particularly Jayasekara’s sentiments, raise serious concerns.
With the identity of one candidate now known, attention was also focussing on the response of the United National Party (UNP). There too, a one to one meeting between the two leading contenders, Prime Minister and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe and Deputy Leader Sajith Premadasa ended inconclusively with both apparently indicating their desire to contest the election.
UNP Working Committee
However, Deputy Leader Premadasa, aware that the Prime Minister commanded the majority support of the UNP’s highest decision making body, the Working Committee, although he himself had the support of a majority of the UNP parliamentary group, was keen to stake his claim further.
This came in the form of an announcement that a rally was being planned in Badulla to ‘welcome’ Minister Premadasa by fellow Minister Harin Fernando. Although ostensibly only a ‘welcome’, it was to be a show of strength for Premadasa and a virtual but informal declaration of his candidacy, thus throwing an open challenge to the Prime Minister.
In a move that was eerily similar to Jayasekara warning SLFPers about potential disciplinary action for attending the SLPP convention, UNP General Secretary Akila Viraj Kariyawasam wrote to Fernando urging him to cancel the event. However, Fernando was to respond that the event was only a ‘public welcome’ and it went ahead, drawing healthy crowds and offering encouragement for Premadasa.
Interestingly though both Prime Minister Wickremesinghe and Minister Premadasa also attended an event together, the opening of the ‘Green Valley’ apartment complex for middle-income families at Ranala. There the Premier offered glowing praise for Premadasa.
“Minister Premadasa is a hard worker who works 24 hours a day like his father. He has worked tirelessly to provide houses for the poor all over the country. I also thank him for undertaking the task of constructing houses for middle-income groups. He goes around the country giving hope to the poor,” the Prime Minister said but avoided any references to a UNP candidate, despite being critical of the SLPP candidate, Gotabaya Rajapaksa. Those who observed the event noted that the body language between the two leaders appeared to be quite relaxed and cordial, leading to speculation that a resolution of the candidacy may be in sight for the UNP.
UNP led coalition
Indeed, the UNP will have to announce its candidate shortly. With the SLPP campaign likely to shift in to top gear in the coming weeks, the UNP runs the risk of being left behind if it does not announce a candidate soon and get its own campaign on the road. It is true that the ‘common candidate’ in 2015 emerged just a few weeks before the election and was able to win the contest but that was against an incumbent President who was unpopular at the time.
This time, it is the government that carries the burden of incumbency against an unknown opponent with vast resources at its disposal. It is imperative that the UNP led coalition finalises its candidate and creates a political discussion that will offer a viable alternative to Gotabaya Rajapaksa, if it is to succeed at the country’s eighth presidential election.
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