Localised insurgencies must be recognised as threats - Expert

Localised insurgencies must be recognised as a potentially existential threat to the notion of State, a defence expert told the Colombo Defence Seminar 2018 yesterday.

Commenting on the ‘Role played by violent non -state actors’ on the second day of the seminar Dr. David H. Ucko, Director, Combating Terrorism Fellowship Programme, College of International Security Affairs, National Defence University, Washington, DC said, “Since the defeat of the LTTE by the Sri Lankan government, we haven’t seen many insurgents going toe-to-toe against States."They lose or at least they don’t win," he said.

He covered a wide spectrum of violent manifestations, across the globe and asserted the importance of identifying their behaviour.

Speaking on ‘insurgent’s dilemma’, difficulty of asserting yourself as a start-up of challenging state authority, and of establishing yourself as the new source of power, he said the track record is abysmal: not many recent cases of insurgent groups winning militarily over a state and establishing itself as the new authority has been done.Yet if this form of insurgency is dying, it will lead to adaptation.Herein that one finds the potential rebirth of insurgency as a strategic threat to democratic norms and stability, Dr.Ucko said.

He said localized insurgencies must be recognized as potentially existential threat to notion of state. 

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